By T. D. Thornton
You'd think the nine-furlong GII Remsen S. might be a good measuring stick for GI Kentucky Derby potential because it's the only top-level, 1 1/8-miles American dirt race for juveniles before they turn three. But only three horses in the last 61 years-Thunder Gulch, Go For Gin and Pleasant Colony-have parlayed wins in the Remsen into a blanket of roses at Churchill Downs.
Instead, in recent runnings, the Remsen has evolved into a pipeline for progress deeper into the 3-year-old season. Remsen winners have captured two of the last three editions of the GI Belmont S. (Dornoch, 2024; Mo Donegal, 2022), plus the 2018 GI Travers S. (Catholic Boy).
And the 2023 Remsen runner-up, 'TDN Rising Star' Sierra Leone (Gun Runner), beaten only a nose in the 2024 Derby, later won the GI Breeders' Cup Classic.
Saturday's renewal was a “saved by the wire” squeaker of a score by the Godolphin homebred Poster (Munnings), who rallied from last and pounced four wide off Aqueduct's far turn to collar dueling pacemakers, only to disengage mentally mid-stretch once he thought his job was complete.
The colt responded to Flavien Prat's urgent, deep-stretch rousing to belatedly meet the challenge of the onrushing Aviator Gui (Uncle Mo), who had dead aim and was closing the gap.
Poster managed to win the nose-bob at the wire–but not beyond it.
The Eoin Harty trainee went off as the fourth choice in the betting at 4.8-1.
Poster is now undefeated in three starts after winning a pair of mile maiden and allowance turfers at Ellis Park and Keeneland.
The colt is out of the winning Tapit mare Pin Up, who is a half-sister to the 2006 3-year-old champ Bernardini-a pedigree perk that will embolden arguments favoring Poster's Classic-distance chances on dirt.
Poster closed into quarter-mile splits of :23.95, :24.64, :24.73 and :24.45, sparking back to life after stalling at the start of a final furlong that was timed in a respectable :12.60.
Poster's stretch-run focus faux pas? It might be partially explained by the fact that he's a May 20 foal.
Speculating five months into the future, that could mean that if Poster progresses on the Triple Crown trail, he could end up competing in both the Derby and GI Preakness prior to his actual third birthdate.
Although exact foaling-date records are sketchy prior to 1940, 12 known May foals have won the Derby dating to 1875.
But only three of those winners had a May 20 or later foaling date: Exterminator in 1918 (May 30), Northern Dancer in 1964 (May 27), and Thunder Gulch in 1995 (May 23).
The Remsen clocking of 1:50.37 (84 Beyer Sped Figure) will justifiably get panned when compared against the .53-seconds-faster race (90 Beyer) that undefeated 2-year-old filly and 'TDN Rising Star' Muhimma (Munnings) uncorked a half-hour later on the GII Demoiselle S. over the same nine-furlong distance and surface.
But Poster's time holds up to recent Remsen history. It was the second-fastest running of that stakes in the last 12 years, behind only Dornoch's 1:50.30 clocking last year.
You could make the case that Aviator Gui, who edged past in the gallop-out and earned a co-fig of 84 on the Beyer scale, is the colt to follow out of the Remsen.
That Chad Brown-trained homebred for Three Chimneys Farm was re-transitioning from turf back to dirt and was let go at 9-1 in the betting. He stalked inside, looked full of run, but lost momentum on two distinct occasions, first when stuck behind a wall of horses at the quarter pole, and again when he shifted in late in the lane. Yet he dug in and kept firing, and now has four stretching-out starts from seven to nine furlongs on his resume (although just a maiden win to show for his efforts).
Think of the irony the racing gods have bestowed upon us: Aviator Gui has ensured that for the second year in a row, Derby-prognosticating turf writers will now fill endless winter columns by speculating how Brown plans to correct a lugging-in issue with a top sophomore contender who lost the Remsen by a nose-the same script as with Sierra Leone last year.
“Lugging in in the Remsen again,” Brown told the Aqueduct notes team with a wry laugh, unable to escape the sense of deja vu.
“I never really saw that from that horse before, so I've got a little bit of work to do with him,” Brown said. “He ran good and he showed he belongs around two turns. We'll talk to the team at Three Chimneys and probably take him south.”
Seven horses entered the Remsen and the field scratched down to six. Remember, this is the first year that, according to a new rule in the Road to the Derby points qualifying system, in any five-horse qualifying-race field, only 75% of the points will be proportionally awarded. Any stakes with four or fewer starters will be proportionally awarded just 50% of the total points.
The first stakes that could face that points haircut is this coming Saturday's GII Los Alamitos Futurity, which will be drawn Wednesday.
In the past eight years, the Los Al Futurity has started with six only once, along with six five-horse fields and one four-horse edition dating to 2016.
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